Book/Report FZJ-2017-01598

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Safety trend analysis : construction year and age dependency in technical systems

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1983
Kernforschungsanlage Jülich GmbH Zentralbibliothek, Verlag Jülich

Jülich : Kernforschungsanlage Jülich GmbH Zentralbibliothek, Verlag, Spezielle Berichte der Kernforschungsanlage Jülich 219, 38 p. ()

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Report No.: Juel-Spez-0219

Abstract: A methodology for statistically analysing rare failure events is proposed that may allow an improved evaluation of the longer term progress of the safety performance during the continuing evolution of a technology. The actuarial data base consists of the record of major failures, especially, construction year and age for the failed units, as well as construction rate and size of population. The state-of-the-art of safety is quantified by the failures up to the same age, that requires an augmentation of the actuarial information. A refined (average) age variation of the failure occurrence that is formally derived from the data is employed for the augmentation of the actual failure information. The application of this method is illustrated for the evaluation of the progress of the safety of large embankment dams in the U.S. for the period 1850 through 1980.


Contributing Institute(s):
  1. Publikationen vor 2000 (PRE-2000 ; Retrocat)
Research Program(s):
  1. 899 - ohne Topic (POF3-899) (POF3-899)

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 Record created 2017-02-07, last modified 2021-01-29


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